Avaya starting to enjoy
life on its own Internet-phone sales helps Lucent
offspring recover
By Jeffry Bartash,
CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 12:05 AM ET Jan. 3,
2005
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Life isn't quite
as tough anymore for 4-year-old Avaya Inc. Once part of
Lucent Technologies, which was itself a spinoff of
AT&T, Avaya has emerged as a patch of green growth
in the otherwise barren landscape of the
communications-equipment industry.
It's back in the black. Sales are
rising. And its stock is showing more than a little
appreciation. The reason? Sales of corporate phone
systems based on Internet technology -- Avaya's new
calling card -- are starting to take off. The technology
promises to lower communications costs and, perhaps more
important, transform how companies do business.
Riding fresh momentum, Avaya recently
reported its first year of net income and revenue growth
since staking out its independence from Lucent in the
fall of 2000. In fiscal 2004, sales rose 7 percent to
$4.1 billion.
Things look even better for 2005, when
Avaya projects its sales will rise as much as 27
percent, aided in part by a strong push overseas.
"The fastest adoption rate has been in
the U.S., but it's beginning to pick up at a much
quicker pace now in Europe," Avaya's chief financial
officer, Garry McGuire, told CBS.MarketWatch in an
interview.
Investors have noticed. Shares of Avaya
have surged 34 percent this year, closing on Friday at
$17.73. And most Wall Street analysts expect further
gains in 2005.
Earlier this week, for example, S.G.
Cowen & Co. said the stock could outperform the
"market by 20 percent to 30 percent over the next 12
months."
Phoenix rising
The future didn't
always look so rosy. Just one year ago, annual sales
bottomed out at an adjusted $3.79 billion, down from
$8.3 billion in 1999. After the U.S. economy hit a
recession in early 2001, business customers cut their
own spending and shied away from still-unproven
Internet-based phone systems.
Avaya's management righted the listing
ship, but the cost was high. Employees endured a series
of layoffs that slashed the work force from 31,000, when
the company was spun off by Lucent, to below 15,000.
Morale plunged -- and so did the company's stock
Shares, which had traded as high as $26
early in the company's life, bottomed out at just over a
buck in August 2002. "We did go through some tough
times, obviously, and it's never easy to go through
downsizing," McGuire said. Amid what some analysts have
called the telecom industry's "nuclear winter," Avaya
still devoted sizable resources to perfecting its
technology and testing it with customers.
Once the U.S. economy improved, the
Internet-telephony market was finally ready for a
breakout. "As they began to see their own businesses get
better, companies started spending again," McGuire said.
"And momentum has been building slowly over the last 12
to 15 months."
Bit-by-bit approach
That's exactly
what happened at Toronto-based MCCI, a call-center
operator that fields customer inquiries for corporate
clients. MCCI decided to install Internet-based
technology a few years ago because of improvements in
the economy and in Internet phone systems.
While competitors offered basic systems
that required additional pieces of equipment -- thereby
raising costs and complexity -- Avaya took a more
straightforward approach.
"Out of the box, [Avaya's] was the most
complete solution," said Stephen Haynes, senior vice
president of operations. "It gave us a competitive
advantage right out of the gate."
Yet like many companies, MCCI did not
want to install an entirely Internet-based phone system.
It wanted to add on to its circuit-based equipment and
make the switch gradually, a tack that would save money
and maintain backup in case the IP portion of the system
failed.
Indeed, Avaya's ability to offer a
piece-mail approach is a big selling point as it battles
Cisco Systems, the huge data networker, for market
dominance in IP telephony.
"You can put your toe in the pond
instead of diving in. Test the temperature," said Daryl
Schoolar of In-Stat/MDR, author of a study on why
businesses are adopting the technology.
One of the pivotal moments in Avaya's
recovery took place in 2003. After experiencing trouble
with its new Internet-based phone system, Merrill Lynch
decided to replace some equipment supplied by Cisco with
gear from Avaya. The brokerage wanted a hybrid network.
"My understanding is that strategy won
the day at Merrill Lynch," said Jim Kelleher, a longtime
industry analyst at Argus Research.
Because it has less expertise in
traditional phone networks, Cisco favors a "rip and
replace" strategy. Pull out the entire old network and
put in a new IP one.
"Voice is the most complex application
you're ever going to put into an IP network. We have a
100-year history of voice in the telephony space,"
McGuire said. "Cisco is doing a good job, but they've
started from scratch in telephony."
'Productivity nuts'
Of course, some
executives are more than happy to get rid of their old
phones. Avaya can do that, too. Take Headsets.com. The
company sells a variety of phone headsets and also
offers customer support. By installing Avaya's
technology, employees can keep in constant contact, no
matter where they are. Armed with a laptop or handheld
device, they can access anything on the company network
The benefits also extend to customers
who want to place an order or ask for help. If the phone
lines get backed up, callers are routed from one office
or employee to another to quickly disperse the backlog.
Customers don't have to wait long.
Headsets.com CEO Mike Faith, a
self-described "productivity nut," said the new
technology has boosted revenue generated by each
employee to a frothy $800,000 -- higher than the vaunted
Cisco can claim.
"It was definitely more expensive, but
it was such a slam dunk it was worth doing," he said. "I
am a big believer. We wouldn't want to go back."
In other cases, Internet-based phone
technology actually negates the need for expensive
offices altogether. JetBlue Airways, the popular
discount carrier, is one company that uses "virtual call
centers."
"They don't have one single building
where all the agents sit," McGuire said. "It's all
work-at-home people." Aside from lower real-estate
costs, Internet-phone technology also enables JetBlue to
save on labor costs by adding staff only during busy
periods.
"With a virtual call center, you can
bring on the number of agents for the amount of time you
need to cover that peak and then have them go back off,"
McGuire noted. "You're not paying someone for an
eight-hour day."
The top dog
Since the Merrill
episode, Avaya has rocketed past former market leader
Cisco to take the top spot in sales of Internet-based
phone systems to business customers.
In the third quarter, Avaya held a
slight lead, though Cisco doesn't lag by much. Synergy
Research estimates each company controls about
one-quarter of the market.
Avaya can't rest on its laurels,
however. Other rivals, such as Alcatel, Siemens and
Nortel Networks, are likely to compete harder given the
market's huge growth prospects.
In 2003, for instance, only about 3
percent of U.S. businesses had Internet-phone technology
in their communications systems, according to
In-Stat/MDR. That number will jump to 12 percent in
2004, 19 percent in 2005, 26 percent in 2006 and 33
percent in 2007.
"We're in a migration period, but it's
going to take awhile," Schoolar said. Beyond the U.S.,
Europe is especially ripe for growth. That's why Avaya
is purchasing Tenovis, a large German-based vendor with
nearly $1 billion in sales. The deal will boost Avaya's
presence on the Continent.
On top of that, the company has nearly
$1.6 billion in cash -- up from $200 million two years
ago -- and very little debt. So Avaya can make more
deals if other good opportunities arise.
Looking ahead, Wall Street forecasts
Avaya to generate $5.18 billion in sales in 2005 and
$5.75 billion in 2006. Potential pitfalls include the
company's ability to integrate a series of recent
acquisitions, its success in navigating the intricacies
of overseas markets, and the possibility of another
global slowdown. After all, the equipment industry is
historically cyclical.
If forecasts pan out, however, Avaya
might even top its all-time stock high -- $26. By
comparison, former parent Lucent languishes at $3.75,
while Agere Systems, another Lucent spinoff, trades at a
mere $1.33.
Clearly, independence is proving
superior to life within the formerly far-flung Lucent
empire. "You become a second-class citizen, at times,"
McGuire noted. "We are no longer confused about who are
customers are or where are market is."
Jeffry Bartash is a reporter for
CBS.MarketWatch.com in Washington. |